If you follow the headlines—or the general sentiment on social media—you might believe the Seattle real estate market spent the latter half of 2025 in a freefall. It is a common narrative: inventory spiked, interest rates fluctuated, and buyer activity cooled as the year came to a close. However, anecdotal evidence often fails to capture the full picture.

As a data driven realtor - Ryan Xu, my approach is different. I don't rely on "feeling"; I rely on hard numbers. When we strip away the noise and look strictly at the data from King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties, a different, more nuanced story emerges.

The reality of 2025 was not a crash, but a return to a classic, albeit volatile, seasonal cycle. As the 2025 WSJ RealTrends Verifed #1 broker in WA- Ryan Xu, I have analyzed this year's unique trends to help you understand where we have been and, more importantly, where we are going in 2026.

Caption: King County median prices (blue line) remained resilient, consistently outperforming 2024 levels with a peak near $980k.

The King County Paradox: High Inventory, Higher Prices

One of the most surprising data points of 2025 is the disconnect between inventory and price appreciation in King County.

In the middle of the year, particularly around July and August, we saw a massive surge in active listings. Inventory levels hovered around 3,200 units, significantly higher than the previous year. Conventionally, economics 101 tells us that when supply skyrockets and demand remains steady, prices should drop.

Caption: 2025 saw a noticeable spike in inventory (blue bars) compared to 2024 (green bars), yet prices held firm.

However, the market defied simplicity. Despite this influx, King County closed the year with a solid price growth of roughly 6%.

How is this possible? The answer lies in the "Return to Office" (RTO) mandates. With Amazon enforcing strict RTO policies and Microsoft tightening in-office requirements, demand for housing near Bellevue, Redmond, and South Lake Union remained robust. While remote-work homes sold off, core demand near job centers kept the price floor high.

The Tale of Three Counties: Snohomish Leads the Pack

While King County showed resilience fueled by tech, the neighboring counties told fascinating stories of their own. The data reveals a clear winner in appreciation this year: Snohomish County.

Caption: Surpassing expectations, Snohomish County led the region with over 8% price growth, outperforming both King and Pierce.

Snohomish County: The "Comeback Kid"

Contrary to early fears, Snohomish County did not falter; it surged. The data shows it achieved the highest year-over-year price growth in the region at approximately 8.2%, despite also having the highest growth in new listings.

This performance is a textbook example of an "oversold bounce." After being undervalued in the previous cycle, the market corrected sharply upward. A major catalyst for this confidence was the resolution of the Boeing union negotiations. The new deal brought certainty back to the region's largest employer. Rather than a headwind, the stability of the new contract acted as a green light for buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines, fueling a robust recovery that absorbed the 12% increase in supply.

Caption: The 2025 median price curve (gold line) for Snohomish County consistently stayed well above the 2024 trend (dotted green line), illustrating a strong rebound.

Pierce County: Stability in the South

Pierce County remained the "steady eddy" of the region. It posted a healthy 7.5% price growth, supported by a roughly 10% increase in supply.

Anchored by Tacoma, this market is less volatile due to a buyer pool heavily influenced by military and government employment. These incomes tend to rise steadily with CPI adjustments. Tacoma’s revival—marked by reduced crime rates and improved city planning—continues to make it an attractive, affordable alternative to the northern hubs.

Caption: Pierce County maintained a stable trajectory with prices peaking near $595k, showing consistent demand throughout the year.

Mastering Seasonality: Timing is Everything

If you take only one thing away from this analysis, let it be the importance of seasonality in Seattle real estate. The data from 2025 reinforces a pattern I have tracked for years: May is the peak; December is the trough.

In King County, the median price peaked in May at roughly $980,000 and cooled to around $920,000 by December. That is a significant difference for the exact same asset class.

Caption: The "Seasonality Curve" highlights the opportunity gap. Buying in the "Winter Freeze" can mean significant savings compared to the spring peak.

This is why I advise my clients that Ryan Sells over $150M value properties yearlly since 2020 by adhering to strict timing strategies:

• Sellers: Your window is March through June. Listing after September often means selling at a discount.

• Buyers: The "winter freeze" (November through January) is your golden window. Prices are at their annual bottom, and competition is scarce.

The Investment Verdict: Appreciation over Cash Flow

A common question I receive is whether to invest in real estate or the stock market. In the current high-interest environment, achieving positive cash flow on a rental property in the Greater Seattle area is challenging.

However, viewing real estate strictly through a cash-flow lens is a mistake in this region. The value here is equity growth.

With Snohomish County delivering over 8% growth and King County delivering 6%, the leverage provided by real estate often outperforms other asset classes when risk-adjusted. Real estate here acts as a leveraged bet on the region's economic engines—Tech and Aerospace—but with the added utility of housing and tax benefits.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Why am I bullish on early 2026?

History tells us that inventory usually bottoms out in December. Currently, we are seeing inventory levels dip as we close the year. We are entering the new year with leaner inventory than the summer peak.

Furthermore, macroeconomic trends suggest a "loosening" of monetary policy in the coming year. If the Federal Reserve moves to inject liquidity to support the broader economy, we will likely see a sharp upward trajectory in home prices starting as early as February 2026.

[Insert Image Here: Snohomish_Inventory_Bar.png] Caption: Inventory in Snohomish (gold bars) remained higher than 2024, yet demand absorbed it aggressively—a bullish signal for 2026.

Final Thoughts

Navigating the Seattle market requires more than just browsing Zillow; it requires interpreting data to predict trends before they happen. Whether you are looking to acquire a primary residence during the winter lull or preparing to list your property for maximum value in the spring, you need a strategy backed by analytics.

I am Ryan Xu, top 0.01% broker in WA for years, and my team and I are dedicated to helping you make the smartest financial decisions regarding your real estate portfolio.

Are you ready to position yourself for the 2026 spring market?

Search "Seattle Real Estate Agent Ryan Xu" to connect with us today.

中文版：

拒绝被头条误导：数据揭示 2026 年西雅图房市的真实逻辑

为何现在是入场的黄金窗口？深度解析库存拐点与 2026 年的宏观利好。

By Ryan Xu

如果你只看新闻头条，或者仅仅关注社交媒体上的情绪，你可能会认为 西雅图地产 市场在2025年下半年经历了一场自由落体式的下跌。常见的说法是：库存激增，利率波动，买家活动在年底降温。然而，这些传闻往往无法反映市场的全貌。

作为一个 数据驱动的房产经纪人 (Data Driven Realtor) - Ryan Xu，我的方法有所不同。我不依赖“感觉”，我只相信确凿的数字。当我们剥离噪音，严格审视 King（金郡）、Snohomish（斯诺霍米什郡）和 Pierce（皮尔斯郡）的数据时，一个截然不同且更加细腻的故事浮出水面。

2025年的真相并非崩盘，而是一个回归经典但波动剧烈的季节性周期。作为 2025 WSJ RealTrends Verified 华盛顿州成交量排名第一的经纪人 - Ryan Xu，我分析了今年独特的趋势，帮助你理清过去一年的脉络，更重要的是，看清2026年的方向。

King County（金郡）的悖论：高库存与高房价并存

2025年最令人惊讶的数据点之一，是 King County 库存与价格涨幅之间的背离。

在年中，特别是7月和8月左右，我们看到活跃上市房源大幅激增。库存水平徘徊在3,200套左右，显著高于去年同期。按照传统的经济学原理，当供应激增而需求保持平稳时，价格应该下跌。

然而，市场并未遵循简单的逻辑。尽管库存涌入，King County 仍以约 6% 的稳健价格增长收官。

这怎么可能？答案在于“返岗政策”（RTO）。随着 Amazon 强制执行严格的 RTO 政策已超过一年，以及 Microsoft 收紧办公要求，贝尔维尤（Bellevue）、雷德蒙德（Redmond）和南联合湖（South Lake Union）附近的住房需求依然强劲。虽然远程办公房源遭遇抛售，但就业中心附近的核心需求守住了价格底线。

三郡记：Snohomish County（斯诺霍米什郡）领跑

虽然 King County 依靠科技行业展现了韧性，但邻近的郡县也有着精彩的表现。数据显示，今年的增值赢家是：Snohomish County。

Snohomish County：由于“超跌”带来的强劲反弹

与之前对航空业的担忧相反，Snohomish County 并没有步履蹒跚，反而一路高歌猛进。数据显示，尽管新上市房源增长最高，但它仍实现了该地区最高的同比价格增长，约为 8.2%。

这种表现是教科书级别的 “超跌反弹”。在之前的周期中，Snohomish 受市场回调影响较重，导致其价值相对于 King County 被低估。2025年，我们看到了猛烈的向上修正。

这种信心的主要催化剂是 波音工会谈判的圆满解决。最终确定的协议为该地区最大的雇主带回了急需的确定性。新合同的稳定性非但没有成为阻力，反而成为了之前观望买家的“绿灯”。这种重燃的信心使市场得以消化 12% 的供应增长，并推动价格大幅走高。

Pierce County（皮尔斯郡）：南部的稳健力量

Pierce County 依然是该地区的“定海神针”。它录得 7.5% 的健康价格增长，并由约 10% 的供应增长提供支撑。

以塔科马（Tacoma）为核心，该市场的波动性较小，因为其买家群体主要受军队和政府就业的影响。这些收入往往随着 CPI（消费者物价指数）调整而稳步上升，而非受制于波动的股市奖金。随着犯罪率的降低和城市规划的改善，塔科马的复苏使其继续成为北部中心之外一个极具吸引力且负担得起的替代选择。

掌控季节性：时机就是一切

如果你只能从这篇分析中带走一个观点，那就是 西雅图房地产 中季节性的重要性。2025年的数据再次印证了我多年追踪的规律：5月是顶峰，12月是低谷。

在 King County，房价中位数在5月达到约 $980,000 的峰值，而到12月则回落至 $920,000 左右。对于同一类资产而言，这是一个巨大的价差。

这就是为什么我建议我的客户，要像 Ryan Xu (Ryan Sells over $150M value properties yearly since 2020) 一样严格遵守时机策略：

• 卖家： 你的窗口期是3月到6月。9月之后上市往往意味着降价出售。

• 买家： “冬季冻结期”（11月到1月）是你的黄金窗口。价格处于年度底部，且竞争稀缺。

投资结论：看重增值而非现金流

我经常收到的一个问题是：该投资房地产还是股票市场？在当前的高利率环境下，大西雅图地区的出租房想要实现正现金流是充满挑战的。

然而，在这个地区仅从现金流的角度看房地产是一个错误。这里的价值在于 资产增值 (Equity Growth)。

Snohomish County 带来了超过 8% 的增长，King County 也有 6% 的增长，经过风险调整后，房地产提供的杠杆效应往往优于其他资产类别。这里的房地产实际上是对该地区经济引擎——科技和航空业——的杠杆押注，同时还附带了居住效用和税务优势。

展望 2026

为什么我对2026年初持看涨态度？

历史告诉我们，库存通常在12月见底。目前，我们看到随着年底临近，库存水平正在下降。我们正带着比夏季高峰期更紧缺的库存进入新的一年。

此外，宏观经济趋势暗示明年货币政策将出现“宽松”。如果美联储采取行动注入流动性以支持更广泛的经济，我们很可能会看到房价从2026年2月开始出现急剧上升的轨迹。

结语

驾驭西雅图市场不仅仅是浏览 Zillow，还需要解读数据以预判趋势。无论你是想在冬季淡季购入自住房，还是准备在春季以最大价值出售房产，你都需要一个由数据分析支持的策略。

我是 Ryan Xu，多年来一直是华盛顿州排名前 0.01% 的经纪人，我和我的团队致力于帮助你这就你的房地产投资组合做出最明智的财务决策。

你准备好在2026年春季市场中占据有利位置了吗？

搜索“西雅图地产经纪人 Ryan Xu”今天就联系我们。