1. Headline numbers

Combined three-county SFH active inventory: 7,683 units. King County is now +103.8% above its trailing trough of 2,006 and -8.3% off its trailing peak of 4,457. The seasonal supply build is on schedule.

2. Weekly flow & absorption — the signal that matters

Headline inventory is a stock measure; the more useful signal is the flow. King County SFH last seven days:

• 785 new listings (vs 725 prior, ▲8.3%) · 54 back-on-market
• 607 went pending · 457 closed
• 376 price reductions = 9.2% of active inventory
• 71 expired · 165 canceled

Absorption = (NewListing + BackOnMarket) ÷ (Pending + Expired + Canceled)
= (785 + 54) ÷ (607 + 71 + 165)
= 1.00

Why this beats NewListing÷Sold: closings reflect deals struck weeks ago. The numerator/denominator above measure THIS week's net supply pressure. A reading near 1.0 means the system clears what comes in. Watch for two consecutive weeks above 1.10 — leading indicator for DOM lengthening.

Total seller-pressure stack at 15.0%. Benchmark: under 20% normal, 20-30% friction, over 30% genuine distress.

3. County-level Months of Supply

MOS = current active inventory ÷ trailing 12-month average monthly closings. 0–3 sellers' / 3–6 balanced / 6+ buyers'.

King — segment dispersion is wider than the headline

Hottest 1-500K at 2.2 MOS — listing-side leverage. Coolest 5M+ at 13.1 MOS, where DOM runs longer.

Pierce — entry-level remains the region's tightest segment

1-500K sits at 1.5 MOS — first-time-buyer demand exceeds listing flow. Luxury tail at 3M+ (15.2 MOS).

Snohomish — broadly seller-tilted

501K-750K at 2.1 MOS leads.

4. Area-level MOS — Eastside zoom

NWMLS Area code resolution. Of 35 King + Snohomish areas:

• 21 areas in sellers' territory (MOS < 3)
• 12 areas balanced (3–6)
• 2 areas buyer-tilted (6+)

Hottest 5 — listing leverage strongest

1. Area 310 · Auburn — MOS 1.2 (64 active / 615 sold trailing 12 mo)
2. Area 350 · Renton/Highlands — MOS 1.5 (74 active / 574 sold trailing 12 mo)
3. Area 320 · Black Diamond/Maple Valley — MOS 1.7 (114 active / 827 sold trailing 12 mo)
4. Area 120 · Des Moines/Redondo — MOS 1.7 (45 active / 322 sold trailing 12 mo)
5. Area 100 · Jovita/West Hill — MOS 1.7 (46 active / 316 sold trailing 12 mo)

Coolest 5 — buyer-side opportunity

1. Area 520 · Bellevue/West of 405 — MOS 8.3 (147 active / 213 sold trailing 12 mo)
2. Area 360 · Skyway Area — MOS 9.1 (117 active / 155 sold trailing 12 mo)

5. Condo segment — quick read

King condo active 2,209 (Pierce 219 · Snohomish 407). Median price points sit lower; absorption is more rate-sensitive (HOA + rate stack). Downtown urban areas (701 Belltown, 390 Central) typically carry higher MOS than suburban Eastside condo product.

6. Agent playbook — what to do this week

Listing-side

• If listing in Auburn, price at-or-just-under recent comps; expect multiple offers within first weekend.
• If listing in a buyer-tilted area (MOS 6+), front-load presentation; build a 2-week price-revisit checkpoint into the listing agreement.
• Quotable: "1 in 10 listings already reduced this week." Clients hear that better than absolute numbers.

Buyer-side

• Inventory is at a 4-week peak — best selection of the quarter.
• Entry-level (1-500K): pre-approval clean, escalation strategy ready.
• Upper-mid (1.5-2M, 2-3M) where MOS loosens: harder negotiation on inspection and closing terms.

7. FAQ

Why absorption ratio instead of NewListing ÷ Sold?

Closings are lagging — they reflect deals priced 30-60 days earlier. The absorption identity uses this-week pendings, expirations, and cancellations as the denominator, capturing real-time absorption against this-week supply. It's a leading indicator for DOM and pricing-power shifts.

What's MOS and why does it matter?

MOS = current active inventory ÷ trailing 12-month average monthly closings. Under 3 = listing-side leverage; 3–6 = balanced; 6+ = buyer-side leverage. Aggregate numbers mask the dispersion that determines pricing strategy — that's why we slice by price band and area.