Greater Seattle Eastside Market Report: May 02, 2026

Greater Seattle Eastside SFH Weekly Brief, May 02, 2026: Inventory at 4,088 (King County), Absorption 1.00

King County single-family active inventory closed the week at 4,088 listings (+4.2% WoW, +23.3% over four weeks) against an absorption ratio of 1.00. The headline read: Supply and demand near equilibrium, micro-segment dynamics dominate. What follows is a working brief for Xceed Realty agents and any Eastside professional who prices, prospects, or advises on this market.

📌 Brief, Top of Mind

• King County SFH active 4,088 (+4.2% WoW · +23.3% / 4 wk), supply rebuilding from the trough of 2,006.
• Hottest band: 1-500K, 2.2 MOS (144 active). Coolest: 5M+, 13.1 MOS.
• Absorption ratio 1.00, supply and demand near equilibrium.
• Reduction rate 9.2% · Total seller-pressure stack 15.0%.
• Of 35 NWMLS areas tracked: 21 sellers' / 12 balanced / 2 buyers'.
• Condo: King County 2,209 · Pierce County 219 · Snohomish County 407 active.

1. Headline numbers

Combined three-county SFH active inventory: 7,683 units. King County is now +103.8% above its trailing trough of 2,006 and -8.3% off its trailing peak of 4,457. The seasonal supply build is on schedule.

2. Weekly flow & absorption, the signal that matters

Headline inventory is a stock measure; the more useful signal is the flow. King County SFH last seven days:

• 785 new listings (vs 725 prior, ▲8.3%) · 54 back-on-market
• 607 went pending · 457 closed
• 376 price reductions = 9.2% of active inventory
• 71 expired · 165 canceled

Absorption = (NewListing + BackOnMarket) ÷ (Pending + Expired + Canceled)
= (785 + 54) ÷ (607 + 71 + 165)
= 1.00

Why this beats NewListing÷Sold: closings reflect deals struck weeks ago. The numerator/denominator above measure THIS week's net supply pressure. A reading near 1.0 means the system clears what comes in. Watch for two consecutive weeks above 1.10, leading indicator for DOM lengthening.

Total seller-pressure stack at 15.0%. Benchmark: under 20% normal, 20-30% friction, over 30% genuine distress.

3. County-level Months of Supply

MOS = current active inventory ÷ trailing 12-month average monthly closings. 0-3 sellers' / 3-6 balanced / 6+ buyers'.

King County, segment dispersion is wider than the headline

Hottest 1-500K at 2.2 MOS, listing-side leverage. Coolest 5M+ at 13.1 MOS, where DOM runs longer.

Pierce County, entry-level remains the region's tightest segment

1-500K sits at 1.5 MOS, first-time-buyer demand exceeds listing flow. Luxury tail at 3M+ (15.2 MOS).

Snohomish County, broadly seller-tilted

501K-750K at 2.1 MOS leads.

4. Area-level MOS, Eastside zoom

NWMLS Area code resolution. Of 35 King County + Snohomish County areas:

• 21 areas in sellers' territory (MOS < 3)
• 12 areas balanced (3-6)
• 2 areas buyer-tilted (6+)

Hottest 5, listing leverage strongest

1. Area 310 · Auburn, MOS 1.2 (64 active / 615 sold trailing 12 mo)
2. Area 350 · Renton/Highlands, MOS 1.5 (74 active / 574 sold trailing 12 mo)
3. Area 320 · Black Diamond/Maple Valley, MOS 1.7 (114 active / 827 sold trailing 12 mo)
4. Area 120 · Des Moines/Redondo, MOS 1.7 (45 active / 322 sold trailing 12 mo)
5. Area 100 · Jovita/West Hill, MOS 1.7 (46 active / 316 sold trailing 12 mo)

Coolest 5, buyer-side opportunity

1. Area 520 · Bellevue/West of 405, MOS 8.3 (147 active / 213 sold trailing 12 mo)
2. Area 360 · Skyway Area, MOS 9.1 (117 active / 155 sold trailing 12 mo)

5. Condo segment, quick read

King County condo active 2,209 (Pierce County 219 · Snohomish County 407). Median price points sit lower; absorption is more rate-sensitive (HOA + rate stack). Downtown urban areas (701 Belltown, 390 Central) typically carry higher MOS than suburban Eastside condo product.

6. Agent playbook, what to do this week

Listing-side

• If listing in Auburn, price at-or-just-under recent comps; expect multiple offers within first weekend.
• If listing in a buyer-tilted area (MOS 6+), front-load presentation; build a 2-week price-revisit checkpoint into the listing agreement.
• Quotable: "1 in 10 listings already reduced this week." Clients hear that better than absolute numbers.

Buyer-side

• Inventory is at a 4-week peak, best selection of the quarter.
• Entry-level (1-500K): pre-approval clean, escalation strategy ready.
• Upper-mid (1.5-2M, 2-3M) where MOS loosens: harder negotiation on inspection and closing terms.

7. FAQ

Why absorption ratio instead of NewListing ÷ Sold?

Closings are lagging, they reflect deals priced 30-60 days earlier. The absorption identity uses this-week pendings, expirations, and cancellations as the denominator, capturing real-time absorption against this-week supply. It's a leading indicator for DOM and pricing-power shifts.

What's MOS and why does it matter?

MOS = current active inventory ÷ trailing 12-month average monthly closings. Under 3 = listing-side leverage; 3-6 = balanced; 6+ = buyer-side leverage. Aggregate numbers mask the dispersion that determines pricing strategy, that's why we slice by price band and area.

For Xceed Realty agents and industry peers

This brief is published weekly as a working tool. Xceed agents - reply for a custom slice (specific area, price band, or buyer/seller pitch). Industry peers - door is open for note-comparing.

Ryan Xu · Xceed Realty · Greater Seattle Eastside · ryan@xceedwa.com

Methodology / 数据方法： NWMLS Matrix, accessed May 02, 2026 / 2026年05月02日. Single-family residential, MLS sale type only. Active filter: status Active, last 360 days. Sold filter: status Sold, last 365 days. Charts and methodology by Ryan Xu, w/ Xceed Realty.